Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 4
Alaska Senate Race Remains Uncalled With 25% Uncounted as Sullivan's Lead Looks Fragile
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 4

Alaska Senate Race Remains Uncalled With 25% Uncounted as Sullivan's Lead Looks Fragile

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 4

Summary

  • About 25% of Alaska's vote remains uncounted, leaving Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan only narrowly ahead of Democrat Mary Peltola and the race too close to call.
  • Election Day ballots have mostly been reported, but Sullivan is running about 12 percentage points behind Donald Trump's 2024 margin in 27 districts that had finished those tallies by 5 a.m. Eastern.
  • Most remaining ballots are mail votes expected to favor Peltola, including ballots postmarked by Election Day that can arrive in the following days; Alaska will keep counting them and provisional ballots until Nov. 18.
  • The key question is whether either candidate clears 50% to win outright; if not, ranked-choice tabulation will begin only after the Nov. 18 counting deadline.
  • That late-count uncertainty is compounded by ballot-ranking behavior and the presence of Gerald L. Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., factors that could scramble the final ranked-choice outcome.

Insights

What happens if the criminal investigation into ballot manipulation concludes before the final votes are officially tabulated?
How might the presence of a similarly named decoy candidate expose unexpected vulnerabilities in ranked-choice voting systems?
Will the ongoing legal battles over strategic candidacies fundamentally alter how future elections are certified?