Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 6
Super El Niño Arrives After Pacific Waters Rise More Than 2°C, Reshaping Winter Snow
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 6

Super El Niño Arrives After Pacific Waters Rise More Than 2°C, Reshaping Winter Snow

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 6

Summary

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says a very strong El Niño is already underway, with eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures more than 2°C above normal and above 4°C in some areas.
  • That warming alters trade winds and shifts global weather patterns, setting up a stronger southern storm track and a weaker northern one during the core November-to-January peak.
  • California and the Gulf Coast are more likely to see heavier precipitation this winter, while mountain areas in the West could capture more snowfall even as broad parts of North America face warmth, rain or drought.
  • The Midwest is expected to skew warmer and drier, a split that could redirect ski travel after last season brought poor snow conditions across much of the West.
  • Using NOAA’s updated index, this would be only the sixth very strong El Niño since 1950, underscoring forecasts that it could be a record-breaking event.

Insights

Will California's record marine heatwave combine with this massive El Niño to trigger unprecedented coastal flooding this winter?
Could the historic 2026-2027 El Niño permanently alter which North American ski resorts remain economically viable in the future?
Are historical climate models from 1997 still reliable for predicting extreme weather impacts during this unprecedented 2026 ocean warming event?