Researchers Flag $622,608 Poll-Timed Bets on Polymarket and Kalshi Before 2 NYT/Siena Releases
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Nov 7
Researchers Flag $622,608 Poll-Timed Bets on Polymarket and Kalshi Before 2 NYT/Siena Releases
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 7
Summary
$622,608 was wagered by one Polymarket user on Michigan's Democratic Senate nominee before a New York Times/Siena poll showed Abdul El-Sayed with a significant lead, producing more than $180,000 in profit.
$191,277 was also bet hours before an Oct. 31 Times/Siena Nebraska poll, with the trader backing Republican Senator Pete Ricketts before a survey showed him ahead by 6 points; that trade made more than $77,000.
Vanderbilt University researchers said the same user sent large sums to Kalshi and that similar large bets appeared there shortly afterward, prompting scrutiny across both prediction platforms.
The researchers said it remains unclear whether the activity reflected insider access to poll information, accurate guesses about release timing, strong prior convictions or more complex hedging trades.