Early SSW Threatens Minnesota Ice Season as El Niño Keeps Lake Water in the Mid-50s
Updated
Updated · FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul · Nov 6
Early SSW Threatens Minnesota Ice Season as El Niño Keeps Lake Water in the Mid-50s
2 articles · Updated · FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul · Nov 6
Summary
Long-range weather models are signaling a potentially record-early Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a rare Arctic disruption that could sharply alter Minnesota’s ice fishing season.
El Niño had already pointed to a later freeze, shorter season and peak ice of just 11 to 17 inches, with many Minnesota lakes still in the mid-50s in early November.
SSW events occur about 6 times per decade and usually hit in January or February; a major pre-January breakdown would be unusual, with the earliest on record on Nov. 28 in 1968 and 2009.
The closest modern analogue is 2009-10, when early Arctic cold froze lakes but heavy snow created weaker 18-to-22-inch white ice before a March warmup drove widespread ice-out within five days.
For anglers, that means local snow cover and ice type may matter more than thickness alone, because clear blue ice can bear roughly twice the weight of opaque white ice.