Satellite Investors Warn Falcon 9 Exit Could Squeeze Launch Options After 2030

3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Nov 13

Falcon 9 capacity is effectively spoken for until about 2030, leaving satellite operators with few clear alternatives as SpaceX shifts engineering focus to Starship.
100-kg payloads look especially vulnerable because SpaceX rideshares now offer rare low-cost access—$350,000 for the first 50 kg and $7,000 per extra kg, or about $700,000 total.
5% to 10% rebooking fees add to the risk if a shared launch slips, and operators may still have no certainty on when delayed satellites will start generating revenue.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron, Relativity’s Terran R and Blue Origin’s New Glenn could help, but the investor estimates some new rockets may not reach regular cadence until 2033 or 2034.
K2 Space and ICEYE show the split response already emerging: book Falcon 9 years ahead where possible, or explore alternatives such as Ariane 6 for future missions.