Leonid Storm Hit 144,000 Meteors an Hour in 1966 as 2026 Peak May Reach Only 15

Q: With the 2026 Leonids peaking soon, could unmapped debris from Comet Tempel-Tuttle surprise us with an unexpected meteor burst?

Probably not. A small, short-lived uptick is possible, but the evidence points strongly to a weak 2026 Leonid shower rather than a surprise storm. Forecasts from the International Meteor Organization and other meteor specialists cluster around a modest peak on Nov. 17–18, with ideal rates of roughly 10 to 15 meteors per hour, and some forecasts allowing for only minor bursts from older dust trails. That wording matters: researchers are not ruling out brief enhancements, but they are not seeing the kind of dense, fresh debris stream that produces major Leonid outbursts. The reason is orbital geometry and timing. The Leonids come from Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, which last passed perihelion in 1998. The richer trails that fueled the strong 1999, 2001 and 2002 displays have largely drifted away from Earth’s path. In 2026, models indicate Earth will mainly cross sparse, older material, in some cases particles shed centuries or even millennia ago. Could an unmapped filament still show up? In principle, yes. Meteor forecasting is good but not perfect, and the Leonids have a history of occasional surprises because dust trails can be clumpy. But any unexpected activity this year would more likely be a brief localized burst, not a 1966-style storm. For observers, that means tempered expectations but still worthwhile viewing. The Moon should set before the best hours after midnight, leaving dark skies for fast Leonids that can still produce bright streaks and occasional fireballs.

Q: Jupiter will disrupt this comet's orbit in 2029; are this week's Leonids our last chance to see its fireballs for decades?

No. This week’s Leonids are not the last realistic chance to see Leonid fireballs for decades. What is ending is the era of easy access to the comet’s richest, freshest dust trails from the 1998 return of Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. That is why the 2026 shower is forecast to be weak, with only about 10 to 15 meteors per hour at best and long quiet stretches. But even in a weak year, Leonids remain among the fastest meteors, around 44 to 45 miles per second, so bright streaks and occasional fireballs can still appear. The 2029 encounter with Jupiter is expected to perturb Tempel-Tuttle’s orbit and makes a repeat of a 1966-style storm unlikely for many decades. That matters for extreme meteor storms, not for seeing Leonids at all. Earth will still cross old Leonid debris every November, so annual Leonids should continue, usually at modest rates, and some brighter meteors should still be possible. Several forecasts point to the next stronger Leonid activity in the early 2030s, especially around 2033 or 2034, though expectations are for an outburst, not necessarily a true storm. Some skywatching sources also suggest enhanced activity could begin building in the late 2020s into the early 2030s from older trails. So the practical answer is that this week is not a last chance for Leonid fireballs. It is simply not a big year. If skies are clear, the best window is after midnight on Nov. 17–18, once the first-quarter moon has set.

Q: Since only 10 to 15 meteors per hour are expected, what are your real chances of spotting a brilliant Leonid fireball this weekend?

Your chances are modest but real: with a weak Leonid peak of only about 10 to 15 meteors an hour under ideal dark skies, most people who watch for an hour or two may see a few meteors, but only a small fraction are likely to be brilliant fireballs. The reason to keep watching anyway is that Leonids are unusually fast — about 44 to 45 miles per second — and that speed makes them prone to producing bright streaks, persistent trains and, on occasion, fireballs. Even in a poor Leonid year, a standout meteor can happen. The catch is that fireballs are rare by definition, and with total meteor counts this low, the odds of seeing one are much lower than in a strong shower or storm year. In practical terms, if you watch from a very dark site after midnight and stay out until dawn around Nov. 17–18, your odds improve simply because you are increasing your observing time during the shower’s best window. The moon should not be a major problem because it sets before around midnight, leaving darker skies later on. But city lights, trees, buildings and clouds can quickly reduce the already limited count. So the realistic expectation is this: do not expect a dazzling fireball, but do not rule one out. If you get lucky, the Leonids’ speed means the brightest meteors can be memorable even in a weak year.

3 articles · Updated · Space.com · Nov 13

Thirteen amateur astronomers at Arizona's Kitt Peak counted Leonids at 40 per second—144,000 an hour—during the 1966 storm, one of the most intense displays ever seen over the central and western United States.
That outburst came after Comet Tempel-Tuttle's 1965 pass left Earth crossing a dense fresh debris trail, unlike 2026 when forecasters say our planet will meet only sparse, much older particles.
The 2026 Leonids are expected to peak around Nov. 17-18 at just 10 to 15 meteors per hour under ideal dark skies, with the moon setting before late-night viewing improves.
Longer term, forecasts suggest Jupiter will perturb Tempel-Tuttle's path in 2029, making another 1966-scale storm unlikely this century, though a 2034 outburst could still reach 2,000 per hour.