NOAA Sees Above-Average Arizona Rain and Snow as Pacific Temperatures Top 0.5C
Updated
Updated · Arizona's Family · Aug 4
NOAA Sees Above-Average Arizona Rain and Snow as Pacific Temperatures Top 0.5C
3 articles · Updated · Arizona's Family · Aug 4
Summary
NOAA's latest outlook gives Arizona a better-than-normal chance of above-average rain and snow this fall and winter, raising prospects for more storms and heavier mountain snowfall.
A warmer eastern Pacific is driving the forecast: El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in a key region run 0.5C or more above average for several months, and a "Super" El Niño means that area is even hotter.
NOAA says that pattern typically shifts the jet stream across the southern U.S., steering more storms into Arizona and improving snowpack across the southern tier and parts of the Rockies.
Flagstaff's last four El Niño winters offer mixed but favorable precedent — snowfall was normal or above normal in three, though forecasters cautioned the setup does not guarantee a stormy season.