Can an independent candidate significantly alter the outcome of the gubernatorial election by capturing undecided voters?

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Yes, but only if Rick Bennett wins a very large share of the remaining movable vote. The current polling does not show him close to that threshold. In the Fox News poll, Hannah Pingree leads Bobby Charles 48% to 37%, with Bennett at 9%. Other recent polling is similar: Siena found Pingree at 50%, Charles at 36%, Bennett at 8%, while a UNH poll had Pingree at 49%, Charles at 35%, Bennett at 6%, with some undecided voters still out there. That means Bennett is clearly a factor, but not yet a candidate positioned to overtake either major-party nominee on his own. He could still alter the outcome indirectly if he captures a disproportionate share of undecided voters and pulls support unevenly from one side. In a three-way Maine governor’s race, that matters because the general election is not decided by ranked-choice voting; it is a simple plurality contest. So even a candidate polling in the high single digits or low teens can influence which of the top two finishes first. Still, the evidence so far suggests Bennett is more likely to act as a spoiler than a frontrunner. With Pingree holding a double-digit advantage and Bennett under 10% in multiple polls, he would need both substantial late momentum and a collapse in support for one of the major candidates to significantly change the basic shape of the race. The polls also note many voters could still change their minds, so his impact remains possible, but at this stage it appears limited rather than decisive.

Troy Jackson Leads Susan Collins 48-46 in Maine Senate Poll as Trump Ties Weigh

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Troy Jackson Leads Susan Collins 48-46 in Maine Senate Poll as Trump Ties Weigh

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