Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 14
Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates as Inflation Eases to 3.7% and Job Growth Stays Tepid
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 14

Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates as Inflation Eases to 3.7% and Job Growth Stays Tepid

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 14

Summary

  • Traders have largely abandoned bets on a September 15-16 rate hike after July data showed unexpected job losses and softer-than-expected consumer and producer inflation.
  • June PCE inflation eased to 3.7% from May's 4.1%, while unemployment held at 4.1% and real wages have fallen over the past six months, giving policymakers less reason to tighten.
  • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said current rates are still restrictive and argued recent inflation drivers—tariffs, high oil prices and the AI investment boom—should fade over time.
  • Markets still price in more than a 90% chance of a higher policy rate by year-end, even as officials head into next month's meeting with inflation above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years.

Insights

Could the recent drop in payrolls be a hidden warning sign that the Fed's cautious waiting game will backfire?
With the Fed abandoning forward guidance, how will markets survive the new era of unpredictable interest rates?
As inflation cools but job losses begin, is the economy quietly slipping into a recession while the Fed watches?