Updated
Updated · asiae.co.kr · Aug 16
S&P 500 Hits Record High After 23,000 July Job Loss Cuts September Hike Odds
Updated
Updated · asiae.co.kr · Aug 16

S&P 500 Hits Record High After 23,000 July Job Loss Cuts September Hike Odds

3 articles · Updated · asiae.co.kr · Aug 16

Summary

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to an all-time high on Aug. 7 even after July nonfarm payrolls showed a 23,000 decline, far below expectations for an 80,000 increase.
  • CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike falling to 44% from 55% after the jobs report, reinforcing the market’s “bad news is good news” view.
  • May and June payrolls were also revised down to 63,000 and 20,000, but analysts said the labor slowdown has not yet signaled recession because higher-rate fears eased.
  • ISM’s July manufacturing index climbed 2.3 points to 55.6 — the highest since May 2022 — while forward S&P 500 EPS growth stayed strong, especially in technology.
  • Oil is the main risk to that rally: analysts warn that if U.S.-Iran tensions keep crude rising, weak jobs and inflation could revive stagflation fears.

Insights

Why are Wall Street investors celebrating job losses while rising oil prices secretly threaten to trigger a new wave of stagflation?
How will the Federal Reserve navigate the dangerous tightrope between a rapidly cooling labor market and sudden global energy price spikes?
Could the hidden drop in labor force participation be the silent trigger that ultimately shatters the current stock market illusion?