S&P 500 Hits Record High After 23,000 July Job Loss Cuts September Hike Odds
Updated
Updated · asiae.co.kr · Aug 16
S&P 500 Hits Record High After 23,000 July Job Loss Cuts September Hike Odds
3 articles · Updated · asiae.co.kr · Aug 16
Summary
The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to an all-time high on Aug. 7 even after July nonfarm payrolls showed a 23,000 decline, far below expectations for an 80,000 increase.
CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike falling to 44% from 55% after the jobs report, reinforcing the market’s “bad news is good news” view.
May and June payrolls were also revised down to 63,000 and 20,000, but analysts said the labor slowdown has not yet signaled recession because higher-rate fears eased.
ISM’s July manufacturing index climbed 2.3 points to 55.6 — the highest since May 2022 — while forward S&P 500 EPS growth stayed strong, especially in technology.
Oil is the main risk to that rally: analysts warn that if U.S.-Iran tensions keep crude rising, weak jobs and inflation could revive stagflation fears.