Fed Seen Holding Rates at 3.50%-3.75% Through 2026 as 90% of Economists Back Pause
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17
Fed Seen Holding Rates at 3.50%-3.75% Through 2026 as 90% of Economists Back Pause
3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17
Summary
94 of 104 economists in an Aug. 12-17 Reuters poll expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its Sept. 15-16 meeting, and 80 see no move through year-end.
July job losses, softer retail sales and lower-than-expected inflation reinforced the pause view, pushing market pricing for a September quarter-point hike to a near-70% chance of no change.
22 economists still forecast at least one rate increase this year, versus two expecting cuts, while several FOMC members — including three recent dissenters — have signaled tighter policy may still be needed.
Oil prices remain about 25% above pre-war levels as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its sixth month, keeping markets priced for one hike by December even as poll medians show rates on hold through end-2027.