Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17
Stocks Defy Midterm Pattern, With S&P 500’s Post-Election Year Averaging 14.5% Gains
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17

Stocks Defy Midterm Pattern, With S&P 500’s Post-Election Year Averaging 14.5% Gains

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 17

Summary

  • Midterm-election years have historically been the weakest in the presidential cycle, yet the market has still climbed sharply this year, strengthening the case for staying invested.
  • Since 1957, the S&P 500 has returned about 10% annually on average, but midterm years have produced only 4.9% gains, making the current resilience stand out.
  • QQQ is up 19.5% year to date and VOO 14.7%, a performance that argues against pulling money from stocks because of election headlines.
  • History turns more favorable after the vote: the third year of the presidential cycle has delivered average S&P 500 gains of 14.5%, often helped by policy efforts to support growth.
  • That backdrop supports broad-market ETFs such as VOO and tech-heavy QQQ, which has nearly 83% of assets in technology and consumer cyclical stocks.

Insights

With AI driving the S&P 500 higher, could looming seasonal weakness trigger a massive and unexpected market correction?
Why did the S&P 500 committee deliberately reject rule changes that would have fast-tracked mega-caps like SpaceX into the index?
As AI infrastructure spending approaches a staggering $1.1 trillion, are we witnessing a historic tech boom or an impending financial bubble?