New Jersey Loses 25,600 July Jobs as Unemployment Edges Down to 4.4%

Q: Why did New Jersey's unemployment rate drop while 25,600 jobs vanished overnight in July?

New Jersey’s unemployment rate fell because it is measured differently from the payroll job count, and in July the household survey showed fewer residents were unemployed even as the employer survey showed a large drop in jobs. The 25,600 loss came from the nonfarm payroll survey, which counts jobs reported by employers. The 4.4% unemployment rate comes from a separate household survey that measures how many residents are working or actively looking for work. Those two series often move in different directions month to month. In July, the household data indicated improvement: the number of unemployed New Jersey residents fell by about 6,700 from June, while resident employment rose by roughly 9,200. That was enough to push the unemployment rate down from 4.5% to 4.4%, even though payrolls fell sharply. State labor officials also cautioned that the payroll drop is “likely overstated.” They said July survey response rates were weaker than expected and seasonal adjustment methods may not have fully captured normal summer swings, especially in professional and business services, which accounted for more than half the reported losses. So the apparent contradiction is not unusual in labor data: one survey suggests employers reported fewer jobs in July, while the other suggests fewer residents were unemployed. The report still points to a softening labor market, but officials say the size of the July jobs loss may look less severe after revisions.

3 articles · Updated · New Jersey Business & Industry Association · Aug 20

New Jersey shed 25,600 jobs in July, with seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment falling to 4,357,600 even as the unemployment rate dipped 0.1 point to 4.4%.
Private employers drove the drop, cutting 25,900 jobs while the public sector added 300; professional and business services lost 13,400 jobs and leisure and hospitality lost 7,300.
State labor officials said the July decline is likely overstated because survey responses were weaker than expected and seasonal factors did not fully capture typical summer declines in professional and business services.
June was also revised lower to a 4,200 job loss from the previously reported 300 decline, pointing to a weaker recent trend in the state labor market.
Over the past year, New Jersey has lost 19,600 jobs overall, and its 4.4% unemployment rate remains above the 4.1% national rate despite improving from 5.5% a year earlier.