African Wave Gets 50% Development Odds as NHC Tracks 2 Atlantic Disturbances
Updated
Updated · The Eyewall · Aug 24
African Wave Gets 50% Development Odds as NHC Tracks 2 Atlantic Disturbances
3 articles · Updated · The Eyewall · Aug 24
Summary
The National Hurricane Center put a 50% development chance on a tropical wave emerging off Africa, making it the more notable of two Atlantic systems now under watch.
Invest 95L southeast of Bermuda is considered the more immediate but less threatening system, with forecasters expecting little time to organize and at most a depression or very weak tropical storm.
Model guidance is split on the African wave: global models and a European AI model favor slow development over 5 to 7 days, while Google DeepMind’s model is less supportive after outperforming some false alarms this season.
Westward motion, wind shear, and dry stable air could limit early organization, though the system may gain latitude and turn north or northeast next weekend if the Bermuda high weakens.
The broader backdrop remains hostile for Atlantic development because a strengthening El Niño is expected to persist, keeping expectations for both disturbances relatively low.
With a record-breaking El Niño approaching, will U.S. coastlines face unprecedented winter chaos despite a surprisingly quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Why does Google's advanced AI completely disagree with traditional weather models about the looming storm threat off the African coast?
After a recent storm dumped 1.3 trillion gallons of rain on Hawaii, what hidden disasters still threaten the severely saturated islands?