IDC Sees 2026 Smartphone Shipments Falling 16.7% as Higher Prices Persist Through 2028
Updated
Updated · 9to5Google · Aug 26
IDC Sees 2026 Smartphone Shipments Falling 16.7% as Higher Prices Persist Through 2028
1 articles · Updated · 9to5Google · Aug 26
Summary
Global smartphone shipments are now forecast to drop 16.7% in 2026—about 200 million units worse year over year—deeper than IDC’s earlier roughly 14% decline estimate.
Memory costs are expected to keep rising through at least 2028, pushing vendors to a permanently higher cost structure and limiting average selling price declines to just 1%-2% annually after that.
The sub-$100 segment is taking the hardest hit: 173 million such phones shipped last year, but Q2 2026 volumes in that tier fell nearly 60% from a year earlier and are set to weaken further in the second half.
Premium models should hold up better, helped by interest-free financing in markets such as the US and UK, while emerging-market mass demand is projected to fall more than 20% this year.
IDC says Apple, Samsung and Huawei are best placed to benefit as the market becomes smaller in units, higher in value and more concentrated, with foldables a rare bright spot at 22.9 million units in 2026.