Analyst Builds 50-Point FRED Score to Gauge 2027 NFL QB First-Round Readiness

1 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 3

A new First-Round Readiness Score, or FRED, measures how closely a quarterback’s college profile matches historical first-round picks, using efficiency, TD-INT rates, QBR, experience and best three- and five-game stretches.
The key cutoff is 50 before a player’s final college season: all 22 quarterbacks in the historical sample who reached that mark became first-round picks, while only three first-rounders with extensive experience entered their final year below it.
That framework recasts several so-called projection prospects. Patrick Mahomes posted a 55.7 pre-final FRED, Josh Allen 51.6 and Daniel Jones 54.5, suggesting they looked more like typical first-rounders than draft narratives later implied.
Regression did not necessarily break the pattern: 9 of those 22 quarterbacks saw their FRED decline in their final season, yet 7 still went in the top 12, including Drake Maye at No. 3 and Allen at No. 7.
The model also highlights true outliers and overhyped cases: Sam Howell, Will Levis and Quinn Ewers never neared 50, while Cam Ward jumped from 6.8 to 49.3 and still went No. 1, showing where NFL projection can override historical precedent.