Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance UK · Sep 6
UK Economy Seen Shrinking 0.1% in July as Retail Slips and Energy Bills Rise 13%
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance UK · Sep 6

UK Economy Seen Shrinking 0.1% in July as Retail Slips and Energy Bills Rise 13%

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance UK · Sep 6

Summary

  • Economists at Investec and Pantheon expect UK monthly GDP to fall 0.1% in July when official data is released on September 11.
  • A 0.5% drop in retail sales and a 13% increase in the household energy price cap likely squeezed consumers, with analysts saying June spending may also have been pulled forward.
  • Services appear mixed: retail and wholesale output is forecast to slip 0.3%, while pubs, restaurants and hotels likely got a weather- and World Cup-driven boost.
  • The expected dip would follow June's 0.3% expansion, which helped lift second-quarter growth to 0.4% after a 1% gain in the first half that outpaced the rest of the G7.
  • Pantheon expects the softer start to leave third-quarter growth at just 0.2%, marking a weak opening to Prime Minister Andy Burnham's tenure.

Insights

Could the expected July economic contraction expose a fragile UK economy hiding behind the temporary summer boost of the World Cup?
Why are UK consumers splurging in pubs while abandoning high street shops amidst a massive 13% energy price hike?