Updated
Updated · CalMatters · Sep 18
California Billionaire Tax Poll Shows 52%-46% Race as Rival Measures Threaten to Void Proposition 40
Updated
Updated · CalMatters · Sep 18

California Billionaire Tax Poll Shows 52%-46% Race as Rival Measures Threaten to Void Proposition 40

3 articles · Updated · CalMatters · Sep 18

Summary

  • A new PPIC poll put California's Proposition 40 ahead 52% to 46%, but with mail voting weeks away the 5% billionaire-wealth tax is still viewed as too close to call.
  • That narrow edge is complicated by Propositions 41 and 42, both narrowly leading in the same survey; if all three pass, the measure with the most votes prevails and could wipe out Prop. 40.
  • SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West backs the tax on roughly 200 California billionaires to fund healthcare, but several major unions oppose it and have amplified misconduct allegations against union leader Dave Regan, who denies them.
  • Gov. Gavin Newsom, who earlier warned the tax could drive out wealthy residents and investment, has largely stepped back and now says wealth taxation should be handled nationally.
  • Complex ballot language and the poll's simplified proposition summaries suggest any Prop. 40 victory could still trigger prolonged legal and political fights.

Insights

Could a hidden legal loophole in rival ballot measures completely erase California's ambitious billionaire tax overnight?
Will targeting the ultra-wealthy solve California's healthcare crisis, or trigger a massive exodus that bankrupts the system?
How can a state legally tax former residents without sparking a historic constitutional battle over the right to travel?