Updated
Updated · Fox Business · Sep 29
California Billionaire Tax Support Falls to 45% as Aaron Kirman Warns of 5% Levy Freeze
Updated
Updated · Fox Business · Sep 29

California Billionaire Tax Support Falls to 45% as Aaron Kirman Warns of 5% Levy Freeze

2 articles · Updated · Fox Business · Sep 29

Summary

  • 45% of likely California voters now back Proposition 40, down from 50% earlier this year, while luxury broker Aaron Kirman says the proposal is already stalling high-end home deals.
  • Kirman said the threat of the one-time 5% tax on certain assets above $1 billion—combined with inflation, high mortgage rates and other state taxes—has pushed wealthy buyers and sellers into a wait-and-see mode.
  • The tax would apply to people who were California residents on Jan. 1, 2026, with payments due in 2027 and spread over five years for an added cost; 43% oppose it and 12% remain undecided.
  • Kirman argued Los Angeles's Measure ULA shows the risk of tax backfire, saying transaction volume has fallen 60% and apartment building 70% since the city's transfer tax took effect.
  • California votes on Proposition 40 on Nov. 3 as the state tries to protect its fourth-largest-in-the-world economy amid a slight population decline and fears of more wealthy residents leaving.

Insights

If Proposition 40 targets only a few hundred residents, why are developers, buyers, and business owners across California already hesitating?
Will California gain new revenue from Prop. 40, or lose more through delayed deals, legal battles, and wealthy residents relocating?