CESifo Study Finds No AI Hiring Hit for 22- to 25-Year-Old Graduates
Updated
Updated · Ars Technica · Sep 25
CESifo Study Finds No AI Hiring Hit for 22- to 25-Year-Old Graduates
3 articles · Updated · Ars Technica · Sep 25
Summary
A CESifo working paper found no significant, widespread AI-driven displacement or hiring decline for recent U.S. college graduates, defined as bachelor’s degree holders ages 22 to 25 not enrolled in further study.
Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu focused on new graduates because firms would likely cut entry-level hiring before laying off experienced workers if AI began replacing standardized office tasks.
U.S. Census Current Population Survey microdata showed the authors examined year-over-year and seasonal unemployment patterns back to 2022, when employment returned to pre-pandemic levels and ChatGPT launched.
The finding cuts against recent warnings that 2026 graduates faced rising AI risk as firms reported more task replacement, AI spending per employee increased, and ChatGPT Enterprise use climbed over the past 12 months.