Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Oct 7
Fed Reassesses 25-Basis-Point Hike Path as Core PCE Slows to 3% and Jobs Rise 29,000
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Oct 7

Fed Reassesses 25-Basis-Point Hike Path as Core PCE Slows to 3% and Jobs Rise 29,000

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Oct 7

Summary

  • September Fed minutes showed officials unanimously backed a rate increase and, at the time, most expected at least one more 25-basis-point hike this year.
  • August core PCE then cooled to 3% from 3.3%, while September payrolls rose just 29,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, reshaping expectations for another near-term move.
  • Philip Jefferson and John Williams had already signaled a more cautious stance, saying the Fed could take more time to judge whether inflation is on a sustained downward path.
  • Markets that had been positioned for another hike this month are now reassessing, with weaker labor data and softer inflation reducing the urgency for October and possibly December tightening.

Insights

With consumer inflation expectations rising despite cooling data, is the Federal Reserve walking into a hidden economic trap?
Could the massive AI boom secretly be fueling inflation, forcing the Fed to hike rates even as job growth plummets?
Will unseen repo market stress force the Fed to abandon its inflation fight before the year ends?