Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 8
Waller Casts Doubt on October Rate Hike as Market Odds Sink to 20%
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 8

Waller Casts Doubt on October Rate Hike as Market Odds Sink to 20%

1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 8

Summary

  • Christopher Waller said the Fed still needs “additional hikes” to return inflation to its 2% target, but signaled they need not come at consecutive meetings.
  • That stance further dimmed expectations for a second straight rate increase at the Fed’s late-October meeting, reinforcing a broader shift among policymakers toward flexibility on timing.
  • 20% market odds for an October hike compare with 70% just two weeks ago, after speeches from John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson pointed to patience following September’s unanimous increase.
  • Friday’s September jobs report, which showed slower monthly growth, added to the case for waiting even as officials say more tightening will likely be needed.

Insights

Could a temporary pause in rate hikes trigger an unexpected resurgence in inflation before the year ends?
Will booming AI infrastructure investments force the Federal Reserve to abandon its timeline for a two percent inflation target?
If inflation remains stubborn until 2029, how will businesses survive prolonged restrictive rates without crashing the economy?