Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Oct 15

SportsLine Model Backs Patriots -7 and Cardinals +12.5 in 10,000 Week 6 NFL Simulations

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Oct 15

SportsLine Model Backs Patriots -7 and Cardinals +12.5 in 10,000 Week 6 NFL Simulations

Q: With prime-time favorites struggling massively against the spread, will the Packers defy the odds or fall victim to the Sunday night curse?

The Packers are slightly better positioned to defy the trend, but only narrowly. The “Sunday night curse” is real in the betting data: prime-time favorites are just 4-12 against the spread through five weeks. That matters because Green Bay is now a small 1.5-point home favorite, exactly the kind of short chalk that has been unreliable in standalone windows. Still, this matchup gives the Packers a stronger case than most prime-time favorites. Jordan Love has been excellent against Dallas, posting 609 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in two career meetings, and he is coming off a 367-yard performance against Chicago. Green Bay also has the benefit of Lambeau Field and recent momentum after back-to-back wins. Just as important, Dallas arrives with major defensive red flags. Multiple reports describe the Cowboys as one of the league’s worst defenses by EPA metrics, and they are coming off a damaging home loss to a previously winless Tampa Bay team. If CeeDee Lamb is limited at all, that further reduces Dallas’ margin for error in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. The caution for Green Bay is that the Packers themselves have not been a strong spread team, and Dallas has covered in both games as an underdog this season. With a total around 52.5, the most likely script is a close, offense-driven game, which makes laying points dangerous. That points to Green Bay winning, but not comfortably enough to fully trust them against the spread.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Oct 15

SportsLine’s Week 6 model flags Patriots -7 over the Jets and Cardinals +12.5 at the Rams as two of its strongest spread plays after running 10,000 simulations for every game.
New England’s case rests on back-to-back wins, rising passing output in every game, and three straight covers against the Jets, whose offense ranks 27th in scoring.
Arizona’s edge comes from an 11-5 ATS record as a road underdog since 2024, a Rams team on a short week, and Los Angeles’ minus-5 turnover differential; the model also leans under 51.5.
The model entered Week 6 on a 57-46 run on top-rated picks dating to 2024 and says five teams win outright in more than 70% of simulations.
Week 6’s board is heavy on divisional matchups and high totals, with four games at 50 points or more and Eagles-Panthers carrying the slimmest spread at 1.5 points.