SONAR Analysts Flag Fragile Trucking Market as STRI Jumps 75 Basis Points in a Week
Updated
Updated · FreightWaves · Sep 17
SONAR Analysts Flag Fragile Trucking Market as STRI Jumps 75 Basis Points in a Week
2 articles · Updated · FreightWaves · Sep 17
Summary
75 basis points of STRI gains in the past week pushed FreightWaves analysts to call the U.S. trucking market “fragile,” after rejection rates had fallen below 14% from more than 17% in June.
Zach Strickland said tender rejections signal capacity stress better than rates, and tied the latest volatility to a market that tightened from late 2025, then was jolted by Road Check week, Memorial Day and the Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II ruling.
Intermodal rail has absorbed some freight and helped create what Strickland called a “new baseline,” but he said the latest rebound shows that stability may not hold.
Craig Fuller said tight capacity could still lift rejections sharply after any disruption, though container and volume data suggest an orderly market rather than a COVID-style supply-chain crisis driven by demand surges.
Regulation remains a key pressure point: Fuller said FMCSA under Derek Barrs wants stronger carrier economics, a stance he expects will keep squeezing capacity as immigration enforcement and other policy shifts weigh on demand.