Super El Niño Nears Record at 2.5°C, Driving Floods and Warm U.S. Fall
Updated
Updated · The Weather Channel · Nov 12
Super El Niño Nears Record at 2.5°C, Driving Floods and Warm U.S. Fall
3 articles · Updated · The Weather Channel · Nov 12
Summary
Pacific waters in the key Niño 3.4 region reached 2.5°C above average in mid-November, putting the 2026 super El Niño near record strength and on track to intensify further.
NOAA’s official three-month index stood at 1.97°C for August-October, below 1997’s 2.07°C pace, but the agency still gives about 60% odds of a historic event exceeding post-1950 El Niños.
Its weather signal is already entrenched: the Atlantic hurricane season produced just one hurricane, the fewest since 1925, and typical El Niño winter patterns appear to have arrived 1-2 months early.
Recent impacts include major flash floods in the Desert Southwest, up to 2 feet of rain in parts of Florida, and record-wet fall totals in Albuquerque, Flagstaff and West Palm Beach.
That same pattern has left much of the central U.S. unusually warm and dry, with cities including Chicago, Dallas, Houston and Nashville on record-warm fall tracks through early November.